As the world teeters on the brink of catastrophic climate change, the question on everyone’s mind is: can the Paris Agreement – a landmark treaty signed by nearly every country on Earth – deliver on its promise to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels? Five years since its adoption, the answer remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the progress so far has been both promising and precarious.
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The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, marked a historic turning point in the global response to climate change. For the first time, virtually every country on the planet came together to acknowledge the existential threat posed by climate change and to commit to taking concrete actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The treaty’s ambition was clear: to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a target that would prevent the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.
But progress has been slow, and the reality is that the world is still far off track. According to the United Nations, the current level of ambition in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – the plans each country has submitted to reduce its emissions – would only limit warming to around 3°C. That’s a gap of at least 1.5°C, and it’s a gap that’s growing by the day.
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So, what’s holding back progress? One major reason is the lack of action from large emitters like the United States and China. The US, for example, has been a vocal supporter of the Paris Agreement, but its current administration has threatened to withdraw from the treaty altogether. China, on the other hand, has been slow to commit to meaningful emission reductions, despite being the world’s largest emitter.
Another challenge is the difficulty of translating broad commitments into concrete actions on the ground. Even countries that have made significant commitments to reduce their emissions are struggling to turn those commitments into reality. For example, the European Union has set a target of reducing emissions by 55% by 2030, but it’s still unclear how it will achieve that goal.
Despite these challenges, there are still reasons to be optimistic. Many countries are making strides in reducing their emissions, and new technologies are emerging that could help to drive a low-carbon transition. The growth of renewable energy, in particular, has been rapid and widespread, with solar and wind power now cheaper than fossil fuels in many parts of the world.
The Paris Agreement also provides a framework for countries to ratchet up their ambitions over time, and many are taking advantage of that. For example, Costa Rica has committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2050, while Portugal has set a goal of generating 80% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030.
Ultimately, the success of the Paris Agreement will depend on whether countries can find a way to work together to close the ambition gap and deliver on their commitments. It’s a daunting task, but one that’s worth it if the world is to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. As the world looks to the next major climate conference, COP25, in Madrid later this year, one thing is clear: the stakes are high, but the potential rewards are even higher. Will the world be able to come together to deliver on the promise of the Paris Agreement? Only time will tell.
